Business cycle dating committee wiki

It is thus possible that the EU-area is in a recession while some of the individual countries are not, and that the business cycle dates differ for the Euro-area and for individual countries.For instance, 2011Q3 is a peak in the Euro-area as a whole, but not for Germany.We identify a quarter when the economy reached a peak of activity (P) and a later quarter (TP) when the economy reached a trough.The quarters P 1 to T (with P 1 and T included) constitute a recession, a period when economic activity is contracting. How long does the Committee expect the recession to last? Does the Committee follow the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee in its deliberations?Note that since October 2012 the Committee has dropped its requirement that peaks or troughs mark turning points in economic activity in most countries of the euro area.The rationale for this definitional change is explained in details in .

Is it possible that the EU area is in a recession while some of the individual countries are not?A detailed analysis of heterogeneity in individual countries' business cycles is included in the Committee's releases since its creation.Q: Is it possible that the EU area is in a recession while some of the individual countries are not?As another example, the Committee did not declare a recession for 2001 or 2003, even though the data at the time appeared to show a decline in economic activity (though not for two quarters).Subsequent data revisions have erased these declines.

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